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Independence Day could offer cause for concern. If the president turns his speech in Rio into a campaign opportunity, the military’s planned display of ships, parachutists and hourly rifle salutes could instantly take on ominous political significance. “We should not have such overlap of a national event with a large military participation with a campaign event,” said Casarões. “The military that should be a state force that serves the interests of a government. [The Independence Day events] will allow Bolsonaro to use the military’s symbol … to lend credibility to his presidential candidacy,” he added. Concerned about the possible politicization of Wednesday’s military maneuvers, the Federal Attorney’s office of Rio sent an official letter to the local Military, Naval and Air command publicized on Sept. 2 asking how it would ensure that official Independence Day celebrations would not be confused with partisan political demonstrations. Asked if it had received a response, the Attorney’s office told that the Armed Forces has until Wednesday morning to reply. The military did not respond to ‘s request for comment. A poster of the
of the electoral process among his fans — in what critics fear could set the stage for unrest if Bolsonaro doesn’t win re-election. The president has called for some voters to be filmed at the ballot box (an idea squashed by the Electoral Court) and claimed that the country’s electronic voting system has been compromised in the past and is at risk of fraud now, though there is no record of fraud in Brazilian electronic ballots since they began in 1996. He has also suggested that the Armed Forces should perform a parallel ballot count to verify the result. The military has previously served as observers during elections, along with representatives of political parties and universities. But as Lula pulls ahead in the polls, discussion among supporters of an even more active role by the Brazilian Armed Forces — including calls for a military intervention if Bolsonaro loses — has intensified on social media. “We will not trust the results [if Bolsonaro loses] and will demand the president to call the Armed Forces to intervene. But note that this is not a coup, it is a counter coup,” says Roseno. Brazil’s military leadership Against this backdrop, the potential for overlap between military events and pro-Bolsonaro campaign events on
coordinator of Brazil’s Far Right Observatory. “Both indicated they would refuse to accept an electoral result negative to them, both talk about fraud in the ballots. They both also keep a permanent incitement of their radicalized base.” He told that that he foresees a “real risk” of a Jan. 6-type event in Brazil if Bolsonaro’s leftwing rival, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, eventually claims victory at the polls. “I don’t think we’re going to have a coup in the classic sense with the military on the street, like what happened in 1964,” he said, referring to the historic overthrow that led to two decades of military dictatorship in Brazil. “What I think is more likely to happen is an attempted coup, some kind of subversion of democracy … or any attempt to delay the electoral process by introducing doubts about the legitimacy of the process.” has reached out to Bolsonaro’s office for comment. Election paranoia and fears of unrest Waldir Ferraz, a close friend of Bolsonaro who is also organizing the president’s motorcade through Rio, downplays the possibility that the president’s statements could incite unrest or produce chaos. The Independence Day festivities in Rio will simply demonstrate the breadth of Bolsonaro’s support, he told , with “a sea of green and yellow.” But he admits that this show of support is in part motivated by fans’ anger at an electoral system that they have been led to believe is tainted — despite the lack of evidence. “There will be more than 1 million on the streets in Rio, because people now are angry with [Supreme Electoral Court chief] Alexandre de Moraes,” Ferraz says. De Moraes, a longtime thorn in Bolsonaro’s side, this month greenlit search and seizure operations against several businessmen accused of participating in WhatsApp text conversations advocating a coup if Bolsonaro loses the presidential election, Brasil reported. Bolsonaro at the Independence Day ceremony in Brasilia last year. As the race heats up between Bolsonaro and Lula, the incumbent president has frequently made statements undermining the legitimacy
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